2018 · Week 1

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

48·17

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

44

Model margin

+4.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapLions
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.022
  • 37.1%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.196EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -5.42CPOE-2.79
  • 32.2%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 49.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.75
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. DET are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NYJ @ DET24–31DET
2022 · W15DET @ NYJ20–17DET
2014 · W4DET @ NYJ24–17DET
2010 · W9NYJ @ DET23–20NYJ
2006 · W7DET @ NYJ24–31NYJ
2002 · W11NYJ @ DET31–14NYJ
2000 · W16DET @ NYJ10–7DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DET
NYJQ1 15:0010Opp touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 14:401037Punt0–7
DETQ1 8:364-2Punt0–7
NYJQ1 6:54532Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 4:2030Turnover7–7
NYJQ1 4:05732Field goal10–7
DETQ2 14:57647Turnover10–7
DETQ2 11:5831Missed field goal10–7
NYJQ2 9:24615Punt10–7
DETQ2 5:20514Punt10–7
NYJQ2 3:13354Touchdown17–7
DETQ2 1:511060Field goal17–10
NYJQ2 0:1100End of half17–10
DETQ3 15:00480Touchdown17–17
NYJQ3 13:10770Touchdown24–17
DETQ3 9:3639Opp touchdown31–17
DETQ3 8:0731Opp touchdown38–17
DETQ3 7:0020Turnover38–17
NYJQ3 6:4734Field goal41–17
DETQ3 5:15744Missed field goal41–17
NYJQ3 1:46266Touchdown48–17
DETQ3 0:541366Turnover on downs48–17
NYJQ4 10:4738Punt48–17
DETQ4 8:15620Turnover48–17
NYJQ4 6:31838Turnover on downs48–17
DETQ4 0:3700End of half48–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2119821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell1010210.22
Bilal Powell12605.00
Trenton Cannon6152.50
Andre Roberts122.00
Sam Darnold6-1-0.20
Robbie Chosen1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa69631
Terrelle Pryor33490
Robbie Chosen11411
Neal Sterling33270
Eric Tomlinson1170
Trenton Cannon1160
Bilal Powell1250

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4628614
Matt Cassel2/61401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick4205.00
Kerryon Johnson5173.40
Matthew Stafford166.00
Matt Cassel1-1-1.00
LeGarrette Blount4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay7121140
Golden Tate715791
Marvin Jones48540
Kerryon Johnson33200
Theo Riddick57150
Levine Toilolo1170
T.J. Jones1360
Hakeem Valles1250
Luke Willson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.83