Closing spread
DET -7
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.022
- 37.1%Success rate41.5%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -5.42CPOE-2.79
- 32.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.47Points / drive1.75
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/21 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 102 | 10.2 | 2 |
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 6 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 |
| Neal Sterling | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/46 | 286 | 1 | 4 |
| Matt Cassel | 2/6 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 7 | 12 | 114 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 15 | 79 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Hakeem Valles | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83