Closing spread
NYJ -2
Total
44
Model margin
-0.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play-0.086
- 45.7%Success rate39.1%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.27CPOE-4.97
- 41.5%Third-down rate34.3%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 2.36Points / drive1.41
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/38 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/35 | 317 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 4 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 41 | 2 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.58