2022 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

20·17

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2

Total

44

Model margin

-0.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapJets
  • +0.073EPA / play-0.086
  • 45.7%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.27CPOE-4.97
  • 41.5%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.41
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NYJ are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NYJ @ DET24–31DET
2018 · W1NYJ @ DET48–17NYJ
2014 · W4DET @ NYJ24–17DET
2010 · W9NYJ @ DET23–20NYJ
2006 · W7DET @ NYJ24–31NYJ
2002 · W11NYJ @ DET31–14NYJ
2000 · W16DET @ NYJ10–7DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NYJ
DETQ1 15:001473Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 6:553-1Opp touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 6:00714Punt7–0
DETQ1 1:59515Punt7–0
NYJQ1 0:15378Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 14:061482Field goal10–7
NYJQ2 7:061037Punt10–7
DETQ2 1:03420Punt10–7
NYJQ2 0:25465Field goal10–10
NYJQ3 15:00412Turnover10–10
DETQ3 13:173-1Field goal13–10
NYJQ3 11:55411Punt13–10
DETQ3 9:20517Punt13–10
NYJQ3 7:15925Punt13–10
DETQ3 2:37620Punt13–10
NYJQ4 14:5135Punt13–10
DETQ4 13:531055Missed field goal13–10
NYJQ4 7:53756Touchdown13–17
DETQ4 4:41778Touchdown20–17
NYJQ4 1:49935Missed field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3825210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift8526.50
Jamaal Williams13332.50
Justin Jackson6162.70
Amon-Ra St. Brown166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown710760
Kalif Raymond56530
Brock Wright12511
D'Andre Swift59230
DJ Chark12180
Justin Jackson12150
James Mitchell22120
Shane Zylstra1140
Jameson Williams0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson18/3531721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight13231.80
Michael Carter4153.80
Zach Wilson372.30
Elijah Moore133.00
Tyler Conklin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson49980
Jeff Smith45770
Elijah Moore47510
C.J. Uzomah22412
Michael Carter11160
Braxton Berrios16140
Denzel Mims12130
Tyler Conklin1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.58