2026 · Week 3

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

24·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapLions
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.144
  • 44.6%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.309
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.108
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +5.33CPOE+1.18
  • 37.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.92
  • 1.2%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. DET are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15DET @ NYJ20–17DET
2018 · W1NYJ @ DET48–17NYJ
2014 · W4DET @ NYJ24–17DET
2010 · W9NYJ @ DET23–20NYJ
2006 · W7DET @ NYJ24–31NYJ
2002 · W11NYJ @ DET31–14NYJ
2000 · W16DET @ NYJ10–7DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DET
NYJQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:471035Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:12936Punt0–0
DETQ1 2:1959Punt0–0
NYJQ1 0:1730Punt0–0
DETQ2 14:51849Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 9:35774Touchdown7–3
DETQ2 5:331253Touchdown7–10
NYJQ2 1:36930End of half7–10
DETQ3 15:00780Touchdown7–17
NYJQ3 10:56744Field goal10–17
DETQ3 6:221272Touchdown10–24
NYJQ4 14:571064Touchdown16–24
DETQ4 11:17520Turnover on downs16–24
NYJQ4 8:32854Touchdown24–24
DETQ4 4:06465Touchdown24–31
NYJQ4 2:25824Turnover24–31
DETQ4 0:4500End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith31/3732130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall13322.50
Braelon Allen4143.50
Geno Smith2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson10131071
Kenyon Sadiq781051
Jeremy Ruckert55391
Breece Hall33230
Isaiah Williams12210
Jelani Woods11200
Sterling Shepard1130
Braelon Allen3330

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/3226920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs20995.02
Sione Vaki6264.30
Jared Goff461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaac TeSlaa33660
Jahmyr Gibbs78651
Jameson Williams44490
Sam LaPorta34440
Amon-Ra St. Brown48191
Sione Vaki11110
Jackson Meeks1180
Brock Wright2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.80