Closing spread
DET -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
-3.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.027
- 48.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.338EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.4%
- +12.84CPOE-2.91
- 18.2%Third-down rate38.5%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.08Points / drive2.20
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.33
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-3.87