Closing spread
NYJ -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.043
- 41.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.015EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.95CPOE-3.37
- 40.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.69Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 22/39 | 336 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/36 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 8 | 113 | 1 |
| Jahvid Best | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.16