2010 · Week 9

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

23·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NYJ -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapLions
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.043
  • 41.8%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.145
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.95CPOE-3.37
  • 40.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.59
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. DET are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NYJ @ DET24–31DET
2022 · W15DET @ NYJ20–17DET
2018 · W1NYJ @ DET48–17NYJ
2014 · W4DET @ NYJ24–17DET
2006 · W7DET @ NYJ24–31NYJ
2002 · W11NYJ @ DET31–14NYJ
2000 · W16DET @ NYJ10–7DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DET
DETQ1 15:001375Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:1635Punt0–7
DETQ1 7:3436Punt0–7
NYJQ1 5:34620Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:0252Punt0–7
NYJQ1 1:1835Punt0–7
DETQ2 14:52615Punt0–7
NYJQ2 11:3736Punt0–7
DETQ2 10:20411Punt0–7
NYJQ2 8:43966Field goal3–7
DETQ2 4:46630Punt3–7
NYJQ2 1:48375Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 1:00539End of half10–7
NYJQ3 15:00416Turnover10–7
DETQ3 13:09845Touchdown10–13
NYJQ3 8:58845Turnover10–13
DETQ3 4:3838Punt10–13
NYJQ3 3:12617Punt10–13
DETQ3 0:081063Touchdown10–20
NYJQ4 11:5132Punt10–20
DETQ4 10:4332Punt10–20
NYJQ4 8:34618Punt10–20
DETQ4 6:4536Punt10–20
NYJQ4 4:26661Touchdown17–20
DETQ4 2:4634Punt17–20
NYJQ4 1:40745Field goal20–20
NYJOT456Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez22/3933611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson15553.70
Shonn Greene10464.60
Brad Smith284.00
Mark Sanchez310.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes591140
Braylon Edwards38781
Dustin Keller45590
LaDainian Tomlinson69470
Jerricho Cotchery25290
Shonn Greene2290

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/3624020
Drew Stanton0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best16483.00
Matthew Stafford4112.81
Kevin Smith5102.00
Drew Stanton166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson781131
Jahvid Best59400
Kevin Smith11270
Tony Scheffler25220
Brandon Pettigrew35181
Calvin Johnson14130
Bryant Johnson1470

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.16