Closing spread
MIA -6
Total
40
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.103
- 40.0%Success rate41.6%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.139
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.72CPOE-1.62
- 38.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.28Points / drive1.19
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. MIA are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:07 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:11 | 5 | 3 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q1 7:56 | 1 | 8 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 7:51 | 10 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 4:30 | 9 | 31 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 0:52 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 12:08 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 11:22 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q2 9:50 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 6–7 |
| GB | Q2 6:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q2 5:32 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| GB | Q2 1:03 | 6 | 43 | End of half | 6–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 13–10 |
| MIA | Q3 14:10 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 13–10 |
| GB | Q3 11:37 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| MIA | Q3 8:51 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| GB | Q3 6:30 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q3 5:30 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 20–13 |
| GB | Q3 4:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q3 2:29 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 20–16 |
| GB | Q4 13:28 | 1 | 70 | Touchdown | 27–16 |
| MIA | Q4 13:14 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| GB | Q4 11:56 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–24 |
| MIA | Q4 6:11 | 12 | 56 | Missed field goal | 34–24 |
| GB | Q4 2:06 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 34–24 |
| MIA | Q4 1:41 | 8 | 58 | End of half | 34–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/35 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 18 | 118 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 33/62 | 414 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.92