Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.010
- 45.0%Success rate43.5%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.081
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- 37.0%Third-down rate38.0%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.85Points / drive1.67
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 22/39 | 198 | 0 | 2 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Ed Perry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 16/25 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 1/2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 72 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 6 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.27