2002 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ray Lucas

10·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPackers
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.010
  • 45.0%Success rate43.5%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.081
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 37.0%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.67
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13MIA @ GB17–30GB
2022 · W16GB @ MIA26–20GB
2018 · W10MIA @ GB12–31GB
2014 · W6GB @ MIA27–24GB
2010 · W6MIA @ GB23–20MIA
2006 · W7GB @ MIA34–24GB
2000 · W9GB @ MIA20–28MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–GB
GBQ1 15:001061Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 9:07534Turnover0–0
GBQ1 7:14415Punt0–0
MIAQ1 5:391060Turnover0–0
GBQ2 14:521057Touchdown0–7
MIAQ2 10:25518Punt0–7
GBQ2 8:03843Punt0–7
MIAQ2 2:473-3Punt0–7
GBQ2 1:46444Touchdown0–14
MIAQ2 0:4633Punt0–14
GBQ2 0:0600End of half0–14
MIAQ3 15:003-4Punt0–14
GBQ3 13:50643Field goal0–17
MIAQ3 9:52528Turnover0–17
GBQ3 7:2837Punt0–17
MIAQ3 5:591249Opp touchdown0–24
GBQ3 0:0000Opp touchdown0–24
MIAQ4 15:0034Punt0–24
GBQ4 13:5935Punt0–24
MIAQ4 12:19919Field goal3–24
GBQ4 8:203-5Punt3–24
MIAQ4 6:00624Turnover on downs3–24
GBQ4 4:2931Punt3–24
MIAQ4 3:24973Touchdown10–24
GBQ4 1:3100End of half10–24
MIAQ4 1:2671End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ray Lucas22/3919802
Sage Rosenfels0/3000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Lucas9495.41
Ricky Williams14473.40
Robert Edwards33411.30
Randy McMichael188.00
Travis Minor144.00
James McKnight1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers59550
Cris Carter35310
Ricky Williams45230
Desmond Clark11160
James McKnight13140
Robert Edwards11130
Dedric Ward23130
Randy McMichael26120
Ed Perry0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre16/2518711
Doug Pederson1/2100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green19723.81
Tony Fisher12828.00
Najeh Davenport144.00
Brett Favre200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ahman Green68711
Donald Driver34600
Bubba Franks35290
Terry Glenn36240
Javon Walker1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.27