2014 · Week 6

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.142EPA / play+0.019
  • 47.1%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.063
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.68CPOE+2.14
  • 47.1%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.97
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. MIA are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13MIA @ GB17–30GB
2022 · W16GB @ MIA26–20GB
2018 · W10MIA @ GB12–31GB
2010 · W6MIA @ GB23–20MIA
2006 · W7GB @ MIA34–24GB
2002 · W9MIA @ GB10–24GB
2000 · W9GB @ MIA20–28MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIA
GBQ1 15:00980Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 10:09515Field goal7–3
GBQ1 8:1565Punt7–3
MIAQ1 4:02713Turnover on downs7–3
GBQ1 1:54931Punt7–3
MIAQ2 13:213-2Turnover7–3
GBQ2 11:57511Field goal10–3
MIAQ2 8:0838Punt10–3
GBQ2 6:24619Punt10–3
MIAQ2 3:29316Turnover10–3
GBQ2 2:15620Punt10–3
MIAQ2 1:03637Punt10–3
GBQ2 0:2200End of half10–3
MIAQ3 15:00669Touchdown10–10
GBQ3 11:481475Touchdown17–10
MIAQ3 3:441185Touchdown17–17
GBQ4 13:4231Punt17–17
MIAQ4 12:34679Touchdown17–24
GBQ4 9:131068Field goal20–24
MIAQ4 4:09712Punt20–24
GBQ4 2:041160Touchdown27–24
MIAQ4 0:03117Turnover27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/4226430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy14402.90
Aaron Rodgers7344.90
James Starks8313.90
Randall Cobb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson9161071
Davante Adams68770
Randall Cobb57581
Andrew Quarless25111
James Starks25110

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3124422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller14533.81
Ryan Tannehill34916.30
Knowshon Moreno6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry68751
Mike Wallace59671
Lamar Miller33400
Charles Clay35350
Damian Williams11140
Knowshon Moreno1180
Dion Sims1250
Brian Hartline0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin-0.23