Closing spread
GB -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play+0.019
- 47.1%Success rate48.7%
- +0.317EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.063
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.68CPOE+2.14
- 47.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 2.59Points / drive1.97
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. MIA are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/42 | 264 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| James Starks | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 9 | 16 | 107 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| James Starks | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/31 | 244 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin-0.23