2022 · Week 16

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

26·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.054
  • 46.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.050
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.52CPOE+0.08
  • 39.3%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.11
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. MIA are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13MIA @ GB17–30GB
2018 · W10MIA @ GB12–31GB
2014 · W6GB @ MIA27–24GB
2010 · W6MIA @ GB23–20MIA
2006 · W7GB @ MIA34–24GB
2002 · W9MIA @ GB10–24GB
2000 · W9GB @ MIA20–28MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00752Field goal0–3
GBQ1 11:103-9Field goal3–3
MIAQ1 9:26184Touchdown3–10
GBQ1 9:081054Touchdown10–10
MIAQ1 4:10636Punt10–10
GBQ1 0:30551Turnover on downs10–10
MIAQ2 13:25577Touchdown10–17
GBQ2 10:5248Turnover on downs10–17
MIAQ2 9:17714Field goal10–20
GBQ2 4:1835Punt10–20
MIAQ2 2:4028Turnover10–20
GBQ2 1:55721Field goal13–20
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half13–20
GBQ3 15:001178Touchdown20–20
MIAQ3 7:53945Missed field goal20–20
GBQ3 2:25733Turnover20–20
MIAQ4 14:0810Turnover20–20
GBQ4 13:5952Field goal23–20
MIAQ4 11:451057Turnover23–20
GBQ4 6:02961Field goal26–20
MIAQ4 2:0223Turnover26–20
GBQ4 1:2900End of half26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3823811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon11363.31
Aaron Jones6254.20
Aaron Rodgers7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard511610
Christian Watson68490
Romeo Doubs36360
Marcedes Lewis22321
Patrick Taylor11170
Robert Tonyan12130
AJ Dillon23120
Aaron Jones2290
Randall Cobb1250
Josiah Deguara1140

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa16/2531013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert8455.60
Jeff Wilson9374.11
Tua Tagovailoa100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle561431
Tyreek Hill461030
Trent Sherfield22250
Mike Gesicki12240
Durham Smythe1180
Raheem Mostert2340
Jeff Wilson1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+1.39