Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.054
- 46.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.52CPOE+0.08
- 39.3%Third-down rate37.6%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.91Points / drive2.11
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. MIA are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/38 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 16/25 | 310 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 143 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 103 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+1.39