2010 · Week 6

Final / OT

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

23·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

44

Model margin

+5.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPackers
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.076
  • 41.7%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.81CPOE+5.31
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.91
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13MIA @ GB17–30GB
2022 · W16GB @ MIA26–20GB
2018 · W10MIA @ GB12–31GB
2014 · W6GB @ MIA27–24GB
2006 · W7GB @ MIA34–24GB
2002 · W9MIA @ GB10–24GB
2000 · W9GB @ MIA20–28MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–GB
GBQ1 15:00741Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 11:581174Touchdown7–3
GBQ1 6:5236Punt7–3
MIAQ1 5:09838Turnover7–9
GBQ1 1:17186Touchdown7–10
MIAQ1 1:0333Punt7–10
GBQ2 14:16620Punt7–10
MIAQ2 11:40425Punt7–10
GBQ2 8:56845Punt7–10
MIAQ2 3:491263Field goal10–10
GBQ2 0:2000End of half10–10
MIAQ3 15:001364Field goal13–10
GBQ3 7:42517Turnover13–10
MIAQ3 6:14837Turnover on downs13–10
GBQ3 1:261166Field goal13–13
MIAQ4 10:4534Punt13–13
GBQ4 9:4431Punt13–13
MIAQ4 8:08746Touchdown20–13
GBQ4 5:201379Touchdown20–20
MIAQ4 0:1310End of half20–20
MIAOT32Punt20–20
GBOT3-1Punt20–20
MIAOT626Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne23/3923121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown19733.80
Ricky Williams13644.90
Chad Henne294.50
Brian Hartline1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall10171270
Brian Hartline45440
Davone Bess59371
Anthony Fasano12221
Ronnie Brown1120
Ricky Williams11-10

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/3331311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson12534.40
Aaron Rodgers4143.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings671331
Jordy Nelson47640
Tom Crabtree11330
Donald Driver35310
Brandon Jackson33290
Andrew Quarless12230
James Jones0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+5.19