Closing spread
GB -3
Total
44
Model margin
+5.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.076
- 41.7%Success rate45.9%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.81CPOE+5.31
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.34Points / drive1.91
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/39 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 19 | 73 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 17 | 127 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/33 | 313 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 7 | 133 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+5.19