Closing spread
MIA -4.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.033
- 40.2%Success rate38.4%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 38.8%Third-down rate34.3%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.67Points / drive1.52
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. MIA are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/34 | 194 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 15 | 94 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/25 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+1.69