Closing spread
GB -13
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.054
- 40.1%Success rate45.9%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.24CPOE-1.39
- 30.3%Third-down rate36.5%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.45Points / drive2.05
- 2.5%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 23/37 | 213 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 90 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 7 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/28 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 145 | 9.7 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 4 | 7 | 57 | 2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87