2024 · Week 13

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

17·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPackers
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.081
  • 44.3%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.030
  • 7.3%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +3.08CPOE+1.37
  • 35.4%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.38
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16GB @ MIA26–20GB
2018 · W10MIA @ GB12–31GB
2014 · W6GB @ MIA27–24GB
2010 · W6MIA @ GB23–20MIA
2006 · W7GB @ MIA34–24GB
2002 · W9MIA @ GB10–24GB
2000 · W9GB @ MIA20–28MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–GB
GBQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:3039Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:00617Punt0–7
GBQ1 7:531276Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 0:551155Field goal3–14
GBQ2 8:44426Punt3–14
MIAQ2 6:33617Punt3–14
GBQ2 3:03667Touchdown3–21
MIAQ2 1:36832Turnover on downs3–21
GBQ2 0:22334Field goal3–24
MIAQ3 15:0037Punt3–24
GBQ3 12:52772Field goal3–27
MIAQ3 7:42880Touchdown11–27
GBQ3 2:43417Punt11–27
MIAQ3 0:341270Turnover on downs11–27
GBQ4 9:33987Field goal11–30
MIAQ4 5:02767Touchdown17–30
GBQ4 3:043-1Punt17–30
MIAQ4 1:56830End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa37/4636520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert5193.80
De'Von Achane7142.00
Tua Tagovailoa263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith10111130
Tyreek Hill69831
De'Von Achane89561
Jaylen Waddle44530
Raheem Mostert23150
Odell Beckham Jr.1290
Durham Smythe1180
Malik Washington2480
Julian Hill1150

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love21/2827420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs19432.31
Chris Brooks3289.30
Jayden Reed12323.00
Emanuel Wilson22010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tucker Kraft67780
Josh Jacobs44740
Christian Watson24670
Dontayvion Wicks45300
Jayden Reed36242
Chris Brooks2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.75