Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.081
- 44.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.030
- 7.3%Explosive rate11.7%
- +3.08CPOE+1.37
- 35.4%Third-down rate37.6%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.92Points / drive2.38
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 37/46 | 365 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 10 | 11 | 113 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 8 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 21/28 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 43 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Chris Brooks | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 6 | 24 | 2 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75