2006 · Week 7

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

22·36

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -8

Total

47

Model margin

+5.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapColts
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.153
  • 40.9%Success rate51.4%
  • +0.034EPA / dropback+0.294
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.043
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.46CPOE+4.70
  • 38.5%Third-down rate56.7%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.54
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. IND are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4IND @ WAS30–13IND
2022 · W8WAS @ IND17–16WAS
2018 · W2IND @ WAS21–9IND
2014 · W13WAS @ IND27–49IND
2010 · W6IND @ WAS27–24IND
2002 · W8IND @ WAS21–26WAS
1999 · W15WAS @ IND21–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–IND
WASQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:551192Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 6:59831Punt0–7
INDQ1 2:3338Punt0–7
WASQ1 0:54833Touchdown7–7
INDQ2 13:19961Field goal7–10
WASQ2 8:41966Missed field goal7–10
INDQ2 3:5937Opp touchdown14–10
INDQ2 2:24937Field goal14–13
WASQ2 0:0810End of half14–13
INDQ3 15:00455Touchdown14–20
WASQ3 12:59528Punt14–20
INDQ3 10:13481Touchdown14–27
WASQ3 8:1135Punt14–27
INDQ3 5:57866Touchdown14–33
WASQ3 2:461464Missed field goal14–33
INDQ4 10:11846Field goal14–36
WASQ4 4:411690Touchdown22–36
INDQ4 0:1800End of half22–36

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell27/3722620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts10525.20
Clinton Portis12433.60
Antwaan Randle El2199.50

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning25/3534240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai11857.70
Dominic Rhodes13262.00
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.49