2006 · Week 7
Final
RCA Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
IND -8
Total
47
Model margin
+5.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.153
- 40.9%Success rate51.4%
- +0.034EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.043
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.46CPOE+4.70
- 38.5%Third-down rate56.7%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.58Points / drive2.54
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. IND are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 27/37 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/35 | 342 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 11 | 85 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.49