1999 · Week 15
Final
RCA Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play+0.072
- 44.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.193
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- 36.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.78Points / drive1.88
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. IND are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 16/30 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 4 | 8 | 97 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/37 | 298 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 89 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 18 | 117 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| E.G. Green | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Paul Shields | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28