2026 · Week 4

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

30·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

IND -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.005
  • 42.1%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.187EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.002EPA / rush-0.123
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -3.59CPOE+2.73
  • 38.6%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.92
  • 2.8%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8WAS @ IND17–16WAS
2018 · W2IND @ WAS21–9IND
2014 · W13WAS @ IND27–49IND
2010 · W6IND @ WAS27–24IND
2006 · W7WAS @ IND22–36IND
2002 · W8IND @ WAS21–26WAS
1999 · W15WAS @ IND21–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–WAS
INDQ1 15:002-8Turnover0–0
WASQ1 14:3838Field goal0–3
INDQ1 12:5737Punt0–3
WASQ1 10:39770Field goal0–6
INDQ1 6:2132Punt0–6
WASQ1 5:20520Punt0–6
INDQ1 2:36519Punt0–6
WASQ1 0:20617Punt0–6
INDQ2 12:36717Turnover0–6
WASQ2 9:5349Turnover on downs0–6
INDQ2 8:30934Touchdown7–6
WASQ2 3:23523Punt7–6
INDQ2 1:09751Field goal10–6
WASQ3 15:003-2Turnover10–6
INDQ3 14:09420Touchdown17–6
WASQ3 12:45570Touchdown17–13
INDQ3 10:39632Field goal20–13
WASQ3 7:03440Punt20–13
INDQ3 4:50412Punt20–13
WASQ3 3:1147Punt20–13
INDQ3 1:35952Touchdown27–13
WASQ4 11:38925Turnover on downs27–13
INDQ4 8:10420Field goal30–13
WASQ4 5:48930Turnover on downs30–13
INDQ4 1:4612End of half30–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/3414301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor20954.82
Seth McGowan6315.20
Daniel Jones420.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laquon Treadwell56420
Tyler Warren55410
Ashton Dulin36290
Josh Downs34160
Seth McGowan1270
Deion Burks1260
Jonathan Taylor1420

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Athan Kaliakmanis15/3318611
Marcus Mariota3/44600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota13535.00
Austin Ekeler4297.30
Athan Kaliakmanis3165.30
Jacory Croskey-Merritt9151.70
Craig Reynolds242.00
Kaytron Allen310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dyami Brown34650
Treylon Burks13471
Stefon Diggs59350
Jacory Croskey-Merritt24350
Antonio Williams38210
Austin Ekeler12110
Chig Okonkwo2450
Colson Yankoff0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.76
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.62