2026 · Week 4
Scheduled
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+12.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapCommanders
- -0.225EPA / play+0.073
- 42.6%Success rate43.5%
- -0.409EPA / dropback+0.160
- +0.116EPA / rush-0.046
- 13.0%Explosive rate4.3%
- -5.06CPOE-3.44
- 30.0%Third-down rate33.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.99
- 3.7%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. WAS are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+10.28
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+12.50