2002 · Week 8

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

21·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Shane Matthews

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

46

Model margin

+3.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.056
  • 44.3%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.083
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 44.5%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.22
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4IND @ WAS30–13IND
2022 · W8WAS @ IND17–16WAS
2018 · W2IND @ WAS21–9IND
2014 · W13WAS @ IND27–49IND
2010 · W6IND @ WAS27–24IND
2006 · W7WAS @ IND22–36IND
1999 · W15WAS @ IND21–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–WAS
WASQ1 15:001248Field goal0–3
INDQ1 9:5132Punt0–3
WASQ1 8:46866Touchdown0–10
INDQ1 3:4145Punt0–10
WASQ1 1:171183Touchdown0–17
INDQ2 11:0034Punt0–17
WASQ2 9:10647Field goal0–20
INDQ2 6:10734Punt0–20
WASQ2 2:1410Turnover0–20
INDQ2 2:0743Touchdown7–20
WASQ2 1:13512Field goal7–23
INDQ3 15:00829Punt7–23
WASQ3 12:25737Punt7–23
INDQ3 9:3310Turnover7–23
WASQ3 9:2349Turnover on downs7–23
INDQ3 7:5015110Touchdown15–23
WASQ4 14:5632Punt15–23
INDQ4 13:24622Turnover15–23
WASQ4 10:0031Punt15–23
INDQ4 8:46541Touchdown21–23
WASQ4 6:461366Field goal21–26
INDQ4 0:1818Turnover21–26
WASQ4 0:0300End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/3221422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James14332.40
Ricky Williams3217.00
Marvin Harrison188.00
Peyton Manning111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison611770
Marcus Pollard22380
Qadry Ismail34300
Reggie Wayne23250
Ricky Williams11201
Edgerrin James57141
Troy Walters1280

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews17/3521020
Rod Gardner0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis16805.00
Kenny Watson15674.50
Shane Matthews3103.30
Ladell Betts252.50
Derrius Thompson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrius Thompson47630
Darnerien McCants37491
Rod Gardner47480
Chris Doering13331
Leonard Stephens11130
Stephen Davis23120
Rock Cartwright1250
Jacquez Green0100
Walter Rasby0100
Ladell Betts0200
Shane Matthews11-130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.32