2002 · Week 8
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
46
Model margin
+3.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.056
- 44.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- 44.5%Third-down rate39.7%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.22
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. WAS are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/32 | 214 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 5 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 17/35 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Thompson | 4 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 1 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Leonard Stephens | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 1 | -13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.32