2014 · Week 13

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Colt McCoy

27·49

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapColts
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.029
  • 41.7%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.221
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +1.13CPOE+1.10
  • 31.3%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.01
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. IND are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4IND @ WAS30–13IND
2022 · W8WAS @ IND17–16WAS
2018 · W2IND @ WAS21–9IND
2010 · W6IND @ WAS27–24IND
2006 · W7WAS @ IND22–36IND
2002 · W8IND @ WAS21–26WAS
1999 · W15WAS @ IND21–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–IND
INDQ1 15:001-9Turnover0–0
WASQ1 14:4838Field goal3–0
INDQ1 13:1842Turnover3–0
WASQ1 11:503-4Punt3–0
INDQ1 10:07778Touchdown3–7
WASQ1 6:05426Punt3–7
INDQ1 3:1031Punt3–7
WASQ1 1:3030Punt3–7
INDQ2 14:51580Touchdown3–14
WASQ2 12:273-11Punt3–14
INDQ2 10:53965Touchdown3–21
WASQ2 6:531177Touchdown10–21
INDQ2 1:59431Turnover10–21
WASQ2 1:064-4Punt10–21
INDQ2 0:3400End of half10–21
WASQ3 15:00880Touchdown17–21
INDQ3 11:22356Touchdown17–28
WASQ3 10:05615Opp touchdown17–35
WASQ3 7:30690Touchdown24–35
INDQ3 5:12273Touchdown24–42
WASQ3 4:451145Turnover on downs24–42
INDQ4 14:5733Punt24–42
WASQ4 13:45537Field goal27–42
INDQ4 12:00380Touchdown27–49
WASQ4 10:3446Punt27–49
INDQ4 7:28628Punt27–49
WASQ4 3:08960End of half27–49

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy31/4739230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris17673.90
Colt McCoy3124.00
Roy Helu155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed9111230
DeSean Jackson56841
Roy Helu44611
Andre Roberts25460
Santana Moss33300
Logan Paulsen11161
Alfred Morris35160
Pierre Garcon3990
Niles Paul1170

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck19/2737051

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron88811.01
Andrew Luck4205.00
Trent Richardson8121.50
Donte Moncrief166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief341342
Coby Fleener471272
T.Y. Hilton55621
Reggie Wayne45310
Dan Herron2280
Jack Doyle1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.77