2014 · Week 13
Final
Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.029
- 41.7%Success rate45.9%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.221
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.13CPOE+1.10
- 31.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.39Points / drive2.01
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. IND are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 31/47 | 392 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 11 | 123 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 19/27 | 370 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 8 | 88 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 4 | 134 | 2 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 7 | 127 | 2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77