2022 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

17·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Sam Ehlinger

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapColts
  • -0.066EPA / play-0.154
  • 40.9%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.181
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.41CPOE-1.42
  • 34.9%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.33
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. IND are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4IND @ WAS30–13IND
2018 · W2IND @ WAS21–9IND
2014 · W13WAS @ IND27–49IND
2010 · W6IND @ WAS27–24IND
2006 · W7WAS @ IND22–36IND
2002 · W8IND @ WAS21–26WAS
1999 · W15WAS @ IND21–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–IND
INDQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:36420Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:5535Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:21725Punt0–0
INDQ1 5:171064Field goal0–3
WASQ2 14:13675Touchdown7–3
INDQ2 10:55417Punt7–3
WASQ2 9:24529Punt7–3
INDQ2 6:11744Turnover7–3
WASQ2 2:35620Punt7–3
INDQ2 0:2500End of half7–3
WASQ3 15:00625Turnover on downs7–3
INDQ3 12:11929Field goal7–6
WASQ3 7:1335Punt7–6
INDQ3 5:46462Turnover7–6
WASQ3 3:273-8Punt7–6
INDQ3 1:12770Field goal7–9
WASQ4 12:3210Turnover7–9
INDQ4 12:2344Touchdown7–16
WASQ4 11:121182Field goal10–16
INDQ4 4:5539Punt10–16
WASQ4 2:39989Touchdown17–16
INDQ4 0:22313End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke23/3127911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taylor Heinicke6294.81
Curtis Samuel4297.30
Brian Robinson8202.50
Antonio Gibson7192.70
J.D. McKissic263.00
Terry McLaurin1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin681130
Antonio Gibson77581
Curtis Samuel34500
Cam Sims12210
J.D. McKissic35140
Armani Rogers12130
John Bates1160
Dax Milne1140

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Ehlinger17/2320100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor16764.80
Parris Campbell12828.00
Nyheim Hines5204.01
Sam Ehlinger6152.50
Deon Jackson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce35650
Michael Pittman79530
Parris Campbell22430
Nyheim Hines22290
Kylen Granson33110
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Jonathan Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

6.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.3%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.16
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.91