2022 · Week 8
Final
Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
IND -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.154
- 40.9%Success rate40.3%
- -0.045EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.181
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.41CPOE-1.42
- 34.9%Third-down rate33.3%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 1.48Points / drive1.33
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. IND are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 23/31 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Armani Rogers | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ehlinger | 17/23 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.3%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.16
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.91