2010 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
IND -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
0.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play-0.079
- 47.2%Success rate40.8%
- +0.182EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.148
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +3.98CPOE-4.10
- 44.8%Third-down rate29.2%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.12Points / drive1.31
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. WAS are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/38 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 128 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Mike Hart | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 7 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Blair White | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 29/45 | 246 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 8 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin0.00