2010 · Week 6

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

27·24

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

0.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.095EPA / play-0.079
  • 47.2%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.148
  • 6.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +3.98CPOE-4.10
  • 44.8%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.31
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4IND @ WAS30–13IND
2022 · W8WAS @ IND17–16WAS
2018 · W2IND @ WAS21–9IND
2014 · W13WAS @ IND27–49IND
2006 · W7WAS @ IND22–36IND
2002 · W8IND @ WAS21–26WAS
1999 · W15WAS @ IND21–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–WAS
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:54722Turnover6–0
INDQ1 9:56157Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:473-9Punt7–0
INDQ1 7:4133Punt7–0
WASQ1 6:441089Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 1:221284Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 12:44410Punt14–7
INDQ2 10:581066Missed field goal14–7
WASQ2 7:08416Punt14–7
INDQ2 5:06748Field goal17–7
WASQ2 2:00632Missed field goal17–7
INDQ2 0:24327Missed field goal17–7
WASQ2 0:0200End of half17–7
WASQ3 15:00419Punt17–7
INDQ3 13:302-3Turnover17–7
WASQ3 12:49413Touchdown17–14
INDQ3 11:18466Touchdown24–14
WASQ3 9:21518Punt24–14
WASQ3 6:06418Field goal24–17
INDQ3 3:53963Turnover24–17
WASQ4 14:2336Punt24–17
INDQ4 12:48749Field goal27–17
WASQ4 8:4113102Touchdown27–24
INDQ4 2:4630Punt27–24
WASQ4 2:1340Turnover on downs27–24
INDQ4 1:4231Punt27–24
WASQ4 0:3210Turnover27–24
INDQ4 0:2400End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning25/3830720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai171287.51
Mike Hart11433.90
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon471031
Reggie Wayne69710
Austin Collie79571
Dallas Clark69520
Blair White11190
Brody Eldridge1150
Joseph Addai0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb29/4524612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain201005.02
Keiland Williams2126.00
Donovan McNabb210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss812770
Anthony Armstrong57460
Chris Cooley58370
Fred Davis34230
Keiland Williams45191
Joey Galloway14180
Mike Sellers23170
Ryan Torain1190
Brandon Banks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin0.00