2018 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
48
Model margin
-1.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.073
- 48.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.141EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.63CPOE-3.01
- 50.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.25Points / drive1.44
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. WAS are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/31 | 179 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 11 | 83 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 33/46 | 292 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 13 | 14 | 92 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jehu Chesson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.72