2018 · Week 2

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

21·9

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

48

Model margin

-1.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.073
  • 48.0%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.63CPOE-3.01
  • 50.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.44
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4IND @ WAS30–13IND
2022 · W8WAS @ IND17–16WAS
2014 · W13WAS @ IND27–49IND
2010 · W6IND @ WAS27–24IND
2006 · W7WAS @ IND22–36IND
2002 · W8IND @ WAS21–26WAS
1999 · W15WAS @ IND21–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–WAS
INDQ1 15:001175Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:25431Punt7–0
INDQ1 6:3734Punt7–0
WASQ1 4:5873Punt7–0
INDQ1 0:57745Turnover7–0
WASQ2 13:09522Field goal7–3
INDQ2 11:12938Touchdown14–3
WASQ2 6:5134Punt14–3
INDQ2 5:2638Punt14–3
WASQ2 3:5914Punt14–3
WASQ2 3:4418Punt14–3
WASQ2 3:051-5Punt14–3
WASQ2 2:1010Punt14–3
WASQ2 2:1010Punt14–3
WASQ2 2:0000Punt14–3
INDQ2 1:5236Punt14–3
WASQ2 0:55454Missed field goal14–3
INDQ2 0:0100End of half14–3
WASQ3 15:0000Punt14–3
WASQ3 14:551-3Punt14–3
WASQ3 14:16744Punt14–3
INDQ3 10:3830Turnover14–3
WASQ3 9:171-1Field goal14–3
WASQ3 8:32521Field goal14–6
INDQ3 5:4035Punt14–6
WASQ3 4:351042Field goal14–9
INDQ4 13:281170Touchdown14–9
INDQ4 8:1312Touchdown20–9
INDQ4 7:3713Touchdown21–9
WASQ4 7:32854Turnover21–9
INDQ4 4:59427Punt21–9
WASQ4 3:47213Turnover on downs21–9
WASQ4 3:1710Turnover on downs21–9
WASQ4 3:13420Turnover on downs21–9
WASQ4 1:2617Turnover on downs21–9
WASQ4 1:0714Turnover on downs21–9
WASQ4 0:5400Turnover on downs21–9
WASQ4 0:53212Turnover on downs21–9
WASQ4 0:2310Turnover on downs21–9
INDQ4 0:1800End of half21–9
INDQ4 0:0000End of half21–9

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/3117922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins10616.10
Marlon Mack10343.40
Nyheim Hines471.81
Andrew Luck420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton711831
Ryan Grant22300
Eric Ebron34261
Jack Doyle25200
Chester Rogers33170
Jordan Wilkins2230
Marlon Mack1220
Ryan Hewitt0100
Nyheim Hines11-20

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith33/4629200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamison Crowder22914.50
Adrian Peterson11201.80
Alex Smith4143.50
Chris Thompson410.30
Rob Kelley111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Thompson1314920
Paul Richardson46630
Jordan Reed68550
Josh Doctson47370
Adrian Peterson33300
Jamison Crowder2480
Vernon Davis1170
Jehu Chesson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.72