Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
39
Model margin
+2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.055
- 42.5%Success rate43.0%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.117
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.049
- 10.6%Explosive rate11.1%
- +0.26CPOE-1.03
- 39.0%Third-down rate42.8%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.67
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–2 since 1999
PHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 10/17 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/34 | 161 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93