Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
39
Model margin
+2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.055
- 42.5%Success rate43.0%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.117
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.049
- 10.6%Explosive rate11.1%
- +0.26CPOE-1.03
- 39.0%Third-down rate42.8%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.67
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.6 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:20 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 8:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:17 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 3:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 2:33 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:37 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 10:15 | 11 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 4:40 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 2:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 0:06 | 1 | 26 | End of half | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q3 12:41 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q3 11:17 | 8 | 24 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| PHI | Q3 6:09 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q3 1:10 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| PHI | Q4 9:28 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 13–3 |
| JAX | Q4 7:27 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 13–3 |
| PHI | Q4 2:35 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| JAX | Q4 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 10/17 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/34 | 161 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93