2014 · Week 1

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

17·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -10

Total

49

Model margin

+0.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapEagles
  • -0.161EPA / play-0.005
  • 37.6%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.184EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.113
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -7.00CPOE-0.76
  • 32.0%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.88
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 41.6 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5PHI @ JAX17–19JAX
2024 · W9JAX @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W4JAX @ PHI21–29PHI
2018 · W8PHI @ JAX24–18PHI
2010 · W3PHI @ JAX28–3PHI
2006 · W8JAX @ PHI13–6JAX
2002 · W5PHI @ JAX25–28JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PHI
JAXQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:56617Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 10:58444Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 9:00513Turnover7–0
JAXQ1 7:00221Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 6:50517Punt14–0
JAXQ1 5:033-9Punt14–0
PHIQ1 3:04416Punt14–0
JAXQ1 1:27653Field goal17–0
PHIQ2 14:143-8Punt17–0
JAXQ2 13:0138Missed field goal17–0
PHIQ2 11:07440Turnover17–0
JAXQ2 10:071157Missed field goal17–0
PHIQ2 4:361420Punt17–0
JAXQ2 0:5036Punt17–0
PHIQ2 0:28314End of half17–0
PHIQ3 15:001080Touchdown17–7
JAXQ3 11:4437Punt17–7
PHIQ3 9:29640Touchdown17–14
JAXQ3 7:1930Punt17–14
PHIQ3 6:5732Punt17–14
JAXQ3 5:3730Punt17–14
PHIQ3 5:09416Punt17–14
JAXQ3 3:18825Punt17–14
PHIQ3 0:051265Field goal17–17
JAXQ4 10:55929Punt17–23
PHIQ4 7:10168Touchdown17–24
JAXQ4 6:5949Turnover on downs17–24
PHIQ4 5:56620Field goal17–27
JAXQ4 1:572-3Opp touchdown17–34
JAXQ4 1:23651End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne24/4326620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart17422.50
Chad Henne188.00
Denard Robinson382.70
Jordan Todman362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns491102
Marqise Lee610620
Mike Brown35360
Marcedes Lewis69350
Toby Gerhart22150
Jordan Todman1250
Denard Robinson1130
Mickey Shuler0100
Allen Robinson1300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles27/4532221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy21743.50
Darren Sproles11716.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin410971
Zach Ertz35771
LeSean McCoy66410
Jordan Matthews24370
Riley Cooper48290
Brent Celek34150
Darren Sproles46140
Jeff Maehl11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.77