Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
49
Model margin
+0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.161EPA / play-0.005
- 37.6%Success rate43.7%
- -0.184EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.9%
- -7.00CPOE-0.76
- 32.0%Third-down rate44.2%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 0.97Points / drive1.88
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–2 since 1999
PHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 24/43 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 9 | 110 | 2 |
| Marqise Lee | 6 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 6 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mickey Shuler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 27/45 | 322 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.77