2026 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

17·19

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

JAX -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapJaguars
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.117
  • 37.3%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback+0.227
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.030
  • 4.6%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -3.23CPOE+3.79
  • 36.6%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 77.8%Red-zone TD rate71.6%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.62
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 41.6 points. JAX are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9JAX @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W4JAX @ PHI21–29PHI
2018 · W8PHI @ JAX24–18PHI
2014 · W1JAX @ PHI17–34PHI
2010 · W3PHI @ JAX28–3PHI
2006 · W8JAX @ PHI13–6JAX
2002 · W5PHI @ JAX25–28JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:20721Turnover on downs0–0
JAXQ1 6:52363Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 5:2630Punt0–7
JAXQ1 4:19525Punt0–7
PHIQ1 1:131455Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 8:464-1Punt7–7
PHIQ2 6:26362Touchdown14–7
JAXQ2 5:311768Turnover on downs14–7
PHIQ3 15:0037Punt14–7
JAXQ3 13:311281Field goal14–10
PHIQ3 7:11827Turnover on downs14–10
JAXQ3 3:4833Turnover14–10
PHIQ3 2:15620Punt14–10
JAXQ3 0:47415Punt14–10
PHIQ4 13:5748Punt14–10
JAXQ4 12:121088Turnover on downs14–10
PHIQ4 6:3531Punt14–10
JAXQ4 5:27551Touchdown14–16
PHIQ4 3:203-6Punt14–16
JAXQ4 1:5938Punt14–16
PHIQ4 1:35837Field goal17–16
JAXQ4 0:0800Field goal17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts21/4022010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce11141.30
Will Shipley561.21
Jalen Hurts221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Cooper23711
Dontayvion Wicks58630
Makai Lemon57430
Dallas Goedert69380
Will Shipley1270
Zach Ertz0200
Johnny Mundt0100
Dameon Pierce25-20

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/3933121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bhayshul Tuten22723.30
Trevor Lawrence3258.30
Chris Rodriguez Jr.252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington691242
Brenton Strange78680
Josh Cameron36430
Jakobi Meyers23370
Bhayshul Tuten23240
Nate Boerkircher22200
Chris Rodriguez Jr.1160
Brian Thomas Jr.0300
LeQuint Allen Jr.0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.58