Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Eaglesedge mapJaguars
- +0.027EPA / play+0.310
- 34.0%Success rate59.3%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.731
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.053
- 9.4%Explosive rate16.7%
- +0.87CPOE+22.32
- 42.9%Third-down rate55.6%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive3.76
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–2 since 1999
PHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+12.99
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+15.21