Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.100
- 46.6%Success rate47.9%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.100EPA / rush+0.072
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.07CPOE+2.05
- 42.0%Third-down rate46.2%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.07Points / drive2.43
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–2 since 1999
PHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 11/23 | 174 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 4 | 6 | 50 | 2 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/25 | 204 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 27 | 134 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 95 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.25