2022 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

21·29

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapEagles
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.100
  • 46.6%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.100EPA / rush+0.072
  • 9.3%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.07CPOE+2.05
  • 42.0%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.07Points / drive2.43
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 41.6 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5PHI @ JAX17–19JAX
2024 · W9JAX @ PHI23–28PHI
2018 · W8PHI @ JAX24–18PHI
2014 · W1JAX @ PHI17–34PHI
2010 · W3PHI @ JAX28–3PHI
2006 · W8JAX @ PHI13–6JAX
2002 · W5PHI @ JAX25–28JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PHI
JAXQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:00620Opp touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 11:15518Punt7–0
JAXQ1 8:22872Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 3:50538Turnover on downs14–0
JAXQ1 1:14615Turnover14–0
PHIQ2 13:26962Touchdown14–7
JAXQ2 9:1330Punt14–7
PHIQ2 8:24966Touchdown14–14
JAXQ2 3:5539Turnover14–14
PHIQ2 3:00835Touchdown14–20
JAXQ2 0:2613End of half14–20
PHIQ3 15:00423Punt14–20
JAXQ3 12:4130Punt14–20
PHIQ3 11:3947Punt14–20
JAXQ3 9:421051Turnover14–20
PHIQ3 4:171057Field goal14–23
JAXQ4 13:4233Turnover14–23
PHIQ4 12:06724Touchdown14–29
JAXQ4 8:49668Touchdown21–29
PHIQ4 7:191154Turnover on downs21–29
JAXQ4 1:541-7Turnover21–29
PHIQ4 1:4800End of half21–29

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence11/2317421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne8324.00
James Robinson8293.60
Trevor Lawrence273.50
Christian Kirk133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk29600
Jamal Agnew46502
Dan Arnold11260
JaMycal Hasty22220
Evan Engram11160
Marvin Jones0100
Chris Manhertz1100
Tim Jones0100
Travis Etienne0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts16/2520401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders271345.02
Jalen Hurts16382.41
Kenny Gainwell5193.81
Trey Sermon2199.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown57950
Dallas Goedert56720
Miles Sanders23220
DeVonta Smith34170
Zach Pascal0100
Quez Watkins0100
Kenny Gainwell12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.25