2024 · Week 9

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

23·28

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapEagles
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.5%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.056
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.88CPOE+6.20
  • 36.6%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.46
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 41.6 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5PHI @ JAX17–19JAX
2022 · W4JAX @ PHI21–29PHI
2018 · W8PHI @ JAX24–18PHI
2014 · W1JAX @ PHI17–34PHI
2010 · W3PHI @ JAX28–3PHI
2006 · W8JAX @ PHI13–6JAX
2002 · W5PHI @ JAX25–28JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:10220Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:22613Punt0–7
PHIQ1 6:3634Punt0–7
JAXQ1 4:0635Punt0–7
PHIQ1 3:131468Field goal0–10
JAXQ2 9:2049Turnover on downs0–10
PHIQ2 7:26517Turnover on downs0–10
JAXQ2 4:4935Punt0–10
PHIQ2 3:1447Punt0–10
JAXQ2 1:4210Turnover0–10
PHIQ2 1:38852Touchdown0–16
JAXQ2 0:2200End of half0–16
JAXQ3 15:0035Punt0–16
PHIQ3 13:21778Touchdown0–22
JAXQ3 9:251061Touchdown8–22
PHIQ3 5:2614Opp touchdown16–22
PHIQ3 5:12945Turnover on downs16–22
JAXQ3 1:15626Punt16–22
PHIQ4 12:519101Touchdown16–28
JAXQ4 7:43970Touchdown23–28
PHIQ4 4:04534Missed field goal23–28
JAXQ4 2:11622Turnover23–28
PHIQ4 1:3800End of half23–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence16/3116902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne3248.00
Tank Bigsby8222.80
Trevor Lawrence581.62
D'Ernest Johnson263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram510450
Parker Washington36410
Austin Trammell23400
Brian Thomas Jr.24220
Tim Jones12100
Travis Etienne2360
Luke Farrell1150
D'Ernest Johnson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/2423020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley271595.91
Jalen Hurts13675.21
Kenny Gainwell591.80
Ainias Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith46871
Saquon Barkley34401
A.J. Brown24360
Jahan Dotson11360
Grant Calcaterra55300
Kenny Gainwell1110
Ben VanSumeren1100
Ainias Smith1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.71