Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.111
- 41.5%Success rate45.2%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.056
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.88CPOE+6.20
- 36.6%Third-down rate42.4%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.74Points / drive2.46
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–2 since 1999
PHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/31 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 5 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/24 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 27 | 159 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ainias Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ben VanSumeren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ainias Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.71