2010 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

28·3

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -2

Total

45

Model margin

+1.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapJaguars
  • +0.078EPA / play+0.019
  • 44.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.010
  • +0.029EPA / rush+0.030
  • 11.1%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +4.09CPOE+1.85
  • 39.7%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 41.6 points. JAX are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5PHI @ JAX17–19JAX
2024 · W9JAX @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W4JAX @ PHI21–29PHI
2018 · W8PHI @ JAX24–18PHI
2014 · W1JAX @ PHI17–34PHI
2006 · W8JAX @ PHI13–6JAX
2002 · W5PHI @ JAX25–28JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–JAX
PHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:22827Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:26671Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 5:25516Punt7–0
PHIQ1 3:06615Punt7–0
JAXQ1 0:3532Punt7–0
PHIQ2 14:0731Punt7–0
JAXQ2 13:04718Field goal7–3
PHIQ2 9:081151Turnover on downs7–3
JAXQ2 4:0277Punt7–3
PHIQ2 1:37653Touchdown14–3
JAXQ2 0:0400End of half14–3
JAXQ3 15:00418Punt14–3
PHIQ3 13:1838Punt14–3
JAXQ3 12:12420Punt14–3
PHIQ3 9:28427Punt14–3
JAXQ3 6:253-5Turnover20–3
PHIQ3 5:30145Touchdown21–3
JAXQ3 5:2139Punt21–3
PHIQ3 3:29672Touchdown28–3
JAXQ3 0:1764Turnover on downs28–3
PHIQ4 13:5232Punt28–3
JAXQ4 12:18815Punt28–3
PHIQ4 7:57421Punt28–3
JAXQ4 4:461354End of half28–3

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick17/3129130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy11544.90
Mike Vick4307.51
Mike Bell5142.80
DeSean Jackson188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson581531
Jeremy Maclin47832
Brent Celek46420
LeSean McCoy2470
Garrett Mills0100
Jason Avant0100
Riley Cooper0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard13/3010501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew22884.00
David Garrard8232.90
Rashad Jennings3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker28340
Tiquan Underwood12220
Marcedes Lewis35150
Rashad Jennings12140
Mike Thomas2670
Zach Miller1270
Kassim Osgood1150
Maurice Jones-Drew2310
Ernest Wilford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.35