Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play+0.019
- 44.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.010
- +0.029EPA / rush+0.030
- 11.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- +4.09CPOE+1.85
- 39.7%Third-down rate39.5%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.97Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–2 since 1999
PHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 17/31 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 153 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 7 | 83 | 2 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Garrett Mills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 13/30 | 105 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 2 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.35