Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.130
- 46.2%Success rate40.4%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.184
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- +5.11CPOE-4.63
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.5%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 2.01Points / drive1.26
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–2 since 1999
PHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 21/30 | 286 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Josh Adams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 24/41 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| David Grinnage | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13