2018 · Week 8

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

24·18

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapJaguars
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.130
  • 46.2%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.184
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +5.11CPOE-4.63
  • 40.4%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.26
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 41.6 points. JAX are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5PHI @ JAX17–19JAX
2024 · W9JAX @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W4JAX @ PHI21–29PHI
2014 · W1JAX @ PHI17–34PHI
2010 · W3PHI @ JAX28–3PHI
2006 · W8JAX @ PHI13–6JAX
2002 · W5PHI @ JAX25–28JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–JAX
PHIQ1 15:00743Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 11:55841Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 6:50863Turnover0–3
JAXQ1 1:273-6Punt0–3
PHIQ2 14:481264Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 7:43741Field goal3–6
PHIQ2 2:4333Punt3–6
JAXQ2 1:44213Turnover3–6
PHIQ2 1:29444Touchdown10–6
JAXQ2 0:2910End of half10–6
JAXQ3 15:00527Punt10–6
PHIQ3 13:39995Touchdown17–6
JAXQ3 8:39975Touchdown17–12
PHIQ3 4:333-10Punt17–12
JAXQ3 3:071147Field goal17–15
PHIQ4 13:10675Touchdown24–15
JAXQ4 9:55976Field goal24–18
PHIQ4 6:573-3Punt24–18
JAXQ4 5:08821Turnover on downs24–18
PHIQ4 3:36424End of half24–18

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz21/3028631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Adams9616.80
Carson Wentz6284.70
Wendell Smallwood8243.00
Nelson Agholor11414.00
Corey Clement461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews45930
Nelson Agholor36490
Wendell Smallwood23421
Alshon Jeffery45350
Dallas Goedert11321
Zach Ertz46261
Josh Adams1160
Carson Wentz1140
Josh Perkins0100
Corey Clement11-10

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles24/4128610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles8435.40
Carlos Hyde6111.80
Dede Westbrook199.00
T.J. Yeldon273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Yeldon79830
Donte Moncrief47540
DJ Chark45410
David Grinnage35370
Dede Westbrook26311
Keelan Cole23180
Blake Bell12130
Rashad Greene1290
Carlos Hyde0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.13