Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.269
- 43.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.424
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- 39.3%Third-down rate33.9%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 1.81Points / drive0.22
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.6 points. JAX are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:38 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 8:50 | 11 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 3:42 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| PHI | Q2 14:50 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q2 9:59 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PHI | Q2 8:19 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q2 3:41 | 7 | 55 | Opp touchdown | 13–8 |
| PHI | Q2 1:15 | 7 | 41 | End of half | 13–8 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 13–8 |
| PHI | Q3 12:59 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–8 |
| JAX | Q3 11:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–8 |
| PHI | Q3 10:10 | 5 | 30 | Field goal | 16–8 |
| JAX | Q3 7:49 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 16–8 |
| PHI | Q3 4:00 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 16–8 |
| JAX | Q3 1:40 | 11 | 79 | Opp touchdown | 22–9 |
| PHI | Q4 10:37 | 8 | 4 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| JAX | Q4 6:23 | 0 | 0 | — | 28–10 |
| PHI | Q4 6:23 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 36–10 |
| JAX | Q4 2:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 36–10 |
| PHI | Q4 2:20 | 15 | 82 | Touchdown | 43–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/48 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 13/23 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 12 | 100 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 48 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 4 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 6 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Pat Johnson | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 11 | 28 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 4 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.17