Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.089
- 40.0%Success rate41.6%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.157
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.72CPOE+3.28
- 38.9%Third-down rate30.9%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.28Points / drive1.31
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 11:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:17 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 3:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 1:55 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 0:40 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| GB | Q2 14:10 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 10:54 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–10 |
| GB | Q2 8:30 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 4:24 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| GB | Q2 2:42 | 10 | 75 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q3 12:21 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| GB | Q3 9:18 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q3 4:17 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 7–10 |
| GB | Q3 2:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q3 1:14 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| GB | Q4 14:42 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q4 12:41 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 10–10 |
| GB | Q4 9:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q4 8:28 | 3 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| GB | Q4 8:00 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| BUF | Q4 4:33 | 3 | 27 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| GB | Q4 3:01 | 8 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| BUF | Q4 1:26 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 10–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/47 | 287 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 8/15 | 102 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.50