Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.089
- 40.0%Success rate41.6%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.157
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.72CPOE+3.28
- 38.9%Third-down rate30.9%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.28Points / drive1.31
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/47 | 287 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 8/15 | 102 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.50