Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.059
- 40.2%Success rate39.9%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 38.8%Third-down rate38.0%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.67Points / drive1.36
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/35 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Herbert Goodman | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 7 | 9 | 80 | 2 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 18/26 | 259 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 17 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 7 | 12 | 103 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 4 | 70 | 2 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.86