2000 · Week 2

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

18·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 81°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBills
  • -0.010EPA / play-0.059
  • 40.2%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.36
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8GB @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W4BUF @ GB0–22GB
2014 · W15GB @ BUF13–21BUF
2010 · W2BUF @ GB7–34GB
2006 · W9GB @ BUF10–24BUF
2002 · W16BUF @ GB0–10GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–BUF
GBQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:121239Punt0–0
GBQ1 4:10523Punt0–0
BUFQ1 1:18551Punt0–0
GBQ2 14:12625Punt0–0
BUFQ2 10:241047Punt0–0
GBQ2 4:1639Punt0–0
BUFQ2 2:15654Touchdown0–7
BUFQ2 0:4400Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 0:443-3Turnover0–7
BUFQ2 0:1110Field goal0–10
BUFQ3 15:00565Touchdown0–17
GBQ3 11:58780Touchdown7–17
BUFQ3 7:5338Punt7–17
BUFQ3 5:4932Field goal7–20
GBQ3 4:4233Punt7–20
BUFQ3 2:333-8Turnover7–20
GBQ3 1:2037Field goal10–20
BUFQ3 0:40946Touchdown10–27
GBQ4 11:453-8Punt10–27
BUFQ4 10:1333Punt10–27
GBQ4 8:403-3Punt10–27
BUFQ4 7:2133Punt10–27
GBQ4 5:05841Turnover10–27
BUFQ4 2:2530Punt10–27
GBQ4 1:45880Touchdown18–27
BUFQ4 0:351-1End of half18–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre25/3526920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green11464.20
Antonio Freeman122.00
Brett Favre3-2-0.70
Herbert Goodman1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman79802
Donald Driver22580
Charles Lee34300
Tyrone Davis25240
Ahman Green44180
Bill Schroeder25160
Bubba Franks23120

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson18/2625931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson12312.60
Rob Johnson7314.40
Antowain Smith12171.40
Sammy Morris263.00
Eric Moulds144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds7121030
Jay Riemersma44702
Jeremy McDaniel33381
Peerless Price34360
Sheldon Jackson12120
Shawn Bryson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.86