Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play+0.054
- 37.8%Success rate45.9%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -7.12CPOE-1.39
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.5%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.26Points / drive2.05
- 2.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/33 | 151 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Khari Lee | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/40 | 298 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 14 | 81 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.74