2018 · Week 4

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

0·22

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -8.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPackers
  • -0.140EPA / play+0.054
  • 37.8%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -7.12CPOE-1.39
  • 32.3%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.26Points / drive2.05
  • 2.9%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8GB @ BUF17–27BUF
2014 · W15GB @ BUF13–21BUF
2010 · W2BUF @ GB7–34GB
2006 · W9GB @ BUF10–24BUF
2002 · W16BUF @ GB0–10GB
2000 · W2GB @ BUF18–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–GB
BUFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:41834Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:1430Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:54656Touchdown0–6
BUFQ1 5:15828Punt0–6
GBQ1 1:271078Touchdown0–13
BUFQ2 11:053-5Punt0–13
GBQ2 9:2126Turnover0–13
BUFQ2 8:3335Punt0–13
GBQ2 7:32938Punt0–13
BUFQ2 2:41945Turnover0–13
GBQ2 0:43640Field goal0–16
GBQ3 15:00957Field goal0–19
BUFQ3 11:13839Turnover0–19
GBQ3 6:05534Turnover on downs0–19
BUFQ3 4:313-1Punt0–19
GBQ3 2:403-1Punt0–19
BUFQ3 1:323-9Punt0–19
GBQ4 14:48615Turnover0–19
BUFQ4 11:453-18Punt0–19
GBQ4 9:51623Punt0–19
BUFQ4 6:02742Turnover0–19
GBQ4 4:21643Field goal0–22
BUFQ4 1:55510End of half0–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen16/3315102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy5244.80
Josh Allen5193.80
Chris Ivory6152.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay46400
Zay Jones47380
Kelvin Benjamin16340
LeSean McCoy36130
Jason Croom11130
Andre Holmes2380
Khari Lee1150
Taiwan Jones0100
Robert Foster0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/4029811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones11655.91
Aaron Rodgers5316.20
Jamaal Williams11272.50
Ty Montgomery5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams814810
Geronimo Allison611800
Ty Montgomery23560
Marquez Valdes-Scantling13380
Jimmy Graham36211
Aaron Jones11170
Lance Kendricks1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.74