2002 · Week 16

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

0·10

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPackers
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.010
  • 47.1%Success rate43.5%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.67
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8GB @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W4BUF @ GB0–22GB
2014 · W15GB @ BUF13–21BUF
2010 · W2BUF @ GB7–34GB
2006 · W9GB @ BUF10–24BUF
2000 · W2GB @ BUF18–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–GB
GBQ1 15:0033Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 13:585-1Turnover0–0
GBQ1 11:52619Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:10517Turnover0–0
GBQ1 6:5933Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:211141Punt0–0
GBQ1 0:191135Punt0–0
BUFQ2 9:3130Punt0–0
GBQ2 8:12937Field goal0–3
BUFQ2 3:573-2Punt0–3
GBQ2 2:21734Turnover on downs0–3
BUFQ2 0:2910Turnover0–3
GBQ2 0:23410End of half0–3
BUFQ3 15:001446Missed field goal0–3
GBQ3 5:15511Punt0–3
BUFQ3 2:47510Punt0–3
GBQ3 0:1239Punt0–3
GBQ4 14:0310Turnover0–3
BUFQ4 13:5734Punt0–3
GBQ4 12:5038Punt0–3
BUFQ4 10:253-9Turnover0–3
GBQ4 8:53439Touchdown0–10
BUFQ4 7:23519Punt0–10
GBQ4 4:52516Punt0–10
BUFQ4 3:15960Turnover0–10
GBQ4 1:132-1End of half0–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe18/3617902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry20462.30
Drew Bledsoe122.00
Sammy Morris100.00
Peerless Price1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds513450
Peerless Price511390
Jay Riemersma33310
Charles Johnson11220
Josh Reed12170
Dave Moore23140
Travis Henry11110

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre15/3311412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green261164.50
Tony Fisher242.00
Brett Favre2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver58521
Terry Glenn48270
Ahman Green25170
Robert Ferguson15110
Tyrone Davis1210
Bubba Franks0100
Tony Fisher1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.16