Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.010
- 47.1%Success rate43.5%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.2%Third-down rate38.0%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.81Points / drive1.67
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/36 | 179 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 20 | 46 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 5 | 13 | 45 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 5 | 11 | 39 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/33 | 114 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 26 | 116 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 5 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.16