Closing spread
BUF -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.111
- 46.2%Success rate49.0%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.52CPOE+0.35
- 39.3%Third-down rate51.1%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.48
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 203 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/25 | 218 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| James Cook | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 8 | 108 | 1 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.14