2022 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf

Closing spread

BUF -10.5

Total

47

Model margin

+4.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBills
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.111
  • 46.2%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.52CPOE+0.35
  • 39.3%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.48
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W4BUF @ GB0–22GB
2014 · W15GB @ BUF13–21BUF
2010 · W2BUF @ GB7–34GB
2006 · W9GB @ BUF10–24BUF
2002 · W16BUF @ GB0–10GB
2000 · W2GB @ BUF18–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:02934Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ1 8:47861Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 3:3435Punt0–7
BUFQ1 1:41451Touchdown0–14
GBQ2 14:531380Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 6:15865Touchdown7–21
GBQ2 1:54413Punt7–21
BUFQ2 0:53451Field goal7–24
GBQ3 15:00977Field goal10–24
BUFQ3 10:20956Field goal10–27
GBQ3 5:591148Turnover on downs10–27
BUFQ4 14:127-4Turnover10–27
GBQ4 12:3410Turnover10–27
BUFQ4 12:29541Turnover10–27
GBQ4 10:05895Touchdown17–27
BUFQ4 6:321043Punt17–27
GBQ4 2:34846Missed field goal17–27
BUFQ4 0:3800End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/3020321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones201437.20
AJ Dillon10545.40
Aaron Rodgers11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs47621
Samori Toure14371
Robert Tonyan56350
Amari Rodgers13220
Aaron Jones45140
Christian Watson11120
AJ Dillon1190
Josiah Deguara1190
Sammy Watkins1130

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen13/2521822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary14674.80
Josh Allen6498.20
James Cook5357.00
Isaiah McKenzie221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs681081
James Cook11410
Gabe Davis27350
Devin Singletary12160
Dawson Knox23101
Isaiah McKenzie1180
Jake Kumerow0100
Khalil Shakir0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.14