Closing spread
GB -12.5
Total
43
Model margin
+11.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play+0.076
- 40.1%Success rate45.9%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.94CPOE+5.31
- 38.1%Third-down rate41.3%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.49Points / drive1.91
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 11/18 | 102 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roscoe Parrish | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/29 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Dimitri Nance | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 6 | 103 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| James Jones | 3 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.09