2010 · Week 2

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

7·34

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -12.5

Total

43

Model margin

+11.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPackers
  • -0.106EPA / play+0.076
  • 40.1%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.94CPOE+5.31
  • 38.1%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.91
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8GB @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W4BUF @ GB0–22GB
2014 · W15GB @ BUF13–21BUF
2006 · W9GB @ BUF10–24BUF
2002 · W16BUF @ GB0–10GB
2000 · W2GB @ BUF18–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–GB
GBQ1 15:00835Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 11:493-12Punt0–3
GBQ1 9:33543Field goal0–6
BUFQ1 7:353-2Punt0–6
GBQ1 6:021172Touchdown0–13
BUFQ1 0:11956Touchdown7–13
GBQ2 10:4930Punt7–13
BUFQ2 8:48530Punt7–13
GBQ2 5:5938Punt7–13
GBQ2 4:2000Punt7–13
BUFQ2 4:08517Punt7–13
BUFQ2 1:1314Punt7–13
GBQ2 0:2113End of half7–13
BUFQ3 15:00513Turnover7–13
GBQ3 12:49739Touchdown7–20
BUFQ3 8:323-5Punt7–20
GBQ3 6:20764Touchdown7–27
BUFQ3 1:56521Turnover7–27
GBQ4 14:13557Touchdown7–34
BUFQ4 11:41512Turnover on downs7–34
GBQ4 9:47527Punt7–34
BUFQ4 6:271252Turnover on downs7–34
GBQ4 1:1000End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards11/1810202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17643.80
Fred Jackson9394.31
Trent Edwards3124.00
Roscoe Parrish144.00
C.J. Spiller133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roscoe Parrish24340
Steve Johnson36310
C.J. Spiller44230
Jonathan Stupar22140
Fred Jackson0100
David Nelson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2925520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson11292.61
Aaron Rodgers5204.01
Dimitri Nance263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley461030
Donald Driver45381
Greg Jennings35360
James Jones37321
Jordy Nelson22260
Brandon Jackson11100
Donald Lee11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.56.4%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.0%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

76.8%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+11.09