2014 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

13·21

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 38°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBills
  • +0.142EPA / play-0.076
  • 47.1%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.158
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.68CPOE-1.80
  • 47.1%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.48
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8GB @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W4BUF @ GB0–22GB
2010 · W2BUF @ GB7–34GB
2006 · W9GB @ BUF10–24BUF
2002 · W16BUF @ GB0–10GB
2000 · W2GB @ BUF18–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–BUF
GBQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:19519Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:1036Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:2141Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:51943Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 4:273-8Punt3–0
GBQ1 3:2135Opp touchdown3–7
GBQ1 2:09875Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 14:141281Field goal10–10
GBQ2 8:04630Missed field goal10–10
BUFQ2 6:0139Punt10–10
GBQ2 4:3531Punt10–10
BUFQ2 2:5520Turnover10–10
GBQ2 2:44511Punt10–10
BUFQ2 1:3839End of half10–10
BUFQ3 15:001040Field goal10–13
GBQ3 9:21529Punt10–13
BUFQ3 7:36761Field goal10–16
GBQ3 4:1823Turnover10–16
BUFQ3 3:304-5Punt10–16
GBQ3 1:031264Turnover10–16
BUFQ4 11:03422Field goal10–19
GBQ4 9:231061Field goal13–19
BUFQ4 4:51828Punt13–21
GBQ4 1:581-10Safety13–21
BUFQ4 1:5100End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/4218502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy15976.51
Aaron Rodgers3279.00
James Starks4194.80
Randall Cobb2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb713960
Jordy Nelson512550
Eddie Lacy22110
James Starks13100
Andrew Quarless1470
Davante Adams1460
Jarrett Boykin0100
Richard Rodgers0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton14/2715801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson20713.50
Anthony Dixon6264.30
Bryce Brown4205.00
Kyle Orton3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bryce Brown12400
Sammy Watkins16280
Fred Jackson36270
Scott Chandler22220
Robert Woods25220
MarQueis Gray1170
Chris Hogan1260
Anthony Dixon1150
Lee Smith2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.35