Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play-0.076
- 47.1%Success rate41.0%
- +0.317EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.158
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.68CPOE-1.80
- 47.1%Third-down rate37.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.59Points / drive1.48
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/42 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 15 | 97 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 13 | 96 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 14/27 | 158 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.35