Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.045
- 45.5%Success rate42.0%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.73CPOE-3.07
- 49.3%Third-down rate39.4%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 2.18Points / drive1.52
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 20/29 | 308 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Keylon Kincade | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 20/38 | 216 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.71