Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
34
Model margin
+2.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.103
- 39.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.139
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.13CPOE-1.62
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 0.99Points / drive1.19
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 69 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:21 | 12 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 4:02 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 1:38 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 0:19 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 14:09 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 9:06 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 5:34 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:38 | 2 | 12 | End of half | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q3 13:12 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q3 10:08 | 8 | 26 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 6:09 | 7 | 34 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q3 3:21 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 0:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q3 0:08 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| MIA | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–10 |
| MIN | Q4 13:11 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| MIA | Q4 12:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–10 |
| MIN | Q4 10:29 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 13–17 |
| MIN | Q4 9:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–17 |
| MIA | Q4 7:59 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 13–17 |
| MIN | Q4 5:28 | 4 | 27 | Opp touchdown | 13–24 |
| MIN | Q4 3:25 | 15 | 76 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 26/44 | 262 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 28 | 80 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Brad Johnson | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/42 | 254 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.87