Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.060
- 45.0%Success rate45.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.028EPA / rush+0.071
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 37.0%Third-down rate43.6%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.93
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:43 | 6 | 56 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:21 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:37 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q2 13:21 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q2 10:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q2 10:16 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 4:21 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 2:55 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:21 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q3 7:45 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| MIN | Q3 1:19 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q4 11:53 | 10 | 40 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| MIN | Q4 6:09 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| MIA | Q4 0:17 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 15/21 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 4 | 68 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 20/29 | 244 | 0 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 1/1 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 7 | 13 | 110 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 7 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64