2022 · Week 6

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

24·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

45

Model margin

-3.9est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.054
  • 45.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.050
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.66CPOE+0.08
  • 40.7%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 2.04Points / drive2.11
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4MIA @ MIN10–15MIN
2018 · W15MIA @ MIN17–41MIN
2014 · W16MIN @ MIA35–37MIA
2010 · W2MIA @ MIN14–10MIA
2006 · W11MIN @ MIA20–24MIA
2002 · W16MIA @ MIN17–20MIN
2000 · W2MIA @ MIN7–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–MIA
MINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:301033Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:5931Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:201180Punt0–0
MINQ1 0:2333Punt0–0
MIAQ2 14:4732Punt0–0
MINQ2 13:4833Punt0–0
MIAQ2 11:38836Field goal0–3
MINQ2 6:05774Touchdown7–3
MIAQ2 2:32619Missed field goal7–3
MINQ2 1:4036Punt7–3
MIAQ2 0:28214Turnover7–3
MINQ2 0:1835Field goal10–3
MIAQ3 15:0049Turnover on downs10–3
MINQ3 13:233-7Punt10–3
MIAQ3 11:353-1Punt10–3
MINQ3 9:2435Punt10–3
MIAQ3 7:4430Punt10–3
MINQ3 7:203-7Punt10–3
MIAQ3 5:46427Punt10–3
MINQ3 3:22773Touchdown16–3
MIAQ4 14:13775Touchdown16–10
MINQ4 10:0439Punt16–10
MIAQ4 8:25862Turnover16–10
MINQ4 4:10259Touchdown24–10
MIAQ4 3:15214Turnover24–10
MINQ4 3:0137Punt24–10
MIAQ4 2:37788Touchdown24–16
MINQ4 1:2400End of half24–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/3017520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook13775.91
Alexander Mattison133.00
Kirk Cousins2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson681070
Adam Thielen48361
K.J. Osborn35180
Irv Smith4471
Dalvin Cook1160
Johnny Mundt2210

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater23/3432922
Skylar Thompson7/138900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert14493.50
Teddy Bridgewater11010.00
Skylar Thompson199.00
Chase Edmonds231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill12151770
Jaylen Waddle6101290
Mike Gesicki67692
Chase Edmonds22280
Trent Sherfield1460
River Cracraft0100
Tanner Conner0200
Raheem Mostert12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.82
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.86