Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
45
Model margin
-3.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.054
- 45.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.66CPOE+0.08
- 40.7%Third-down rate37.6%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 2.04Points / drive2.11
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/30 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/34 | 329 | 2 | 2 |
| Skylar Thompson | 7/13 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 15 | 177 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 10 | 129 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 6 | 7 | 69 | 2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.86