2010 · Week 2

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

14·10

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapVikings
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.112
  • 41.7%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.121
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.81CPOE-2.30
  • 40.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.25
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4MIA @ MIN10–15MIN
2022 · W6MIN @ MIA24–16MIN
2018 · W15MIA @ MIN17–41MIN
2014 · W16MIN @ MIA35–37MIA
2006 · W11MIN @ MIA20–24MIA
2002 · W16MIA @ MIN17–20MIN
2000 · W2MIA @ MIN7–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–MIN
MINQ1 15:001050Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 9:27973Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 4:4049Punt7–0
MIAQ1 1:59720Punt7–0
MINQ2 12:311178Turnover7–0
MIAQ2 5:44451Punt7–0
MINQ2 4:18942Punt7–0
MIAQ2 0:4518End of half7–0
MIAQ3 15:001241Punt7–0
MINQ3 8:203-1Opp touchdown14–0
MINQ3 6:29761Turnover14–0
MIAQ3 2:5610Turnover14–0
MINQ3 2:4821Touchdown14–7
MIAQ3 2:38526Punt14–7
MINQ4 14:411373Field goal14–10
MIAQ4 7:5231Punt14–10
MINQ4 6:1010Turnover14–10
MIAQ4 5:581-1Turnover14–10
MINQ4 5:46623Turnover on downs14–10
MIAQ4 2:1658Punt14–10
MINQ4 1:42828Turnover on downs14–10
MIAQ4 0:3300End of half14–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne9/1511410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown13806.20
Ricky Williams10303.00
Chad Henne200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall48710
Brian Hartline33281
Davone Bess11120
Ronnie Brown1130
Anthony Fasano0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre22/3622503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson281455.21
Toby Gerhart4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Visanthe Shiancoe69860
Adrian Peterson58410
Percy Harvin57320
Bernard Berrian25240
Jimmy Kleinsasser11200
Greg Lewis14140
Toby Gerhart1150
Greg Camarillo1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.28