Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.112
- 41.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.121
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.81CPOE-2.30
- 40.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.34Points / drive1.25
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. MIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 9/15 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/36 | 225 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 28 | 145 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.28