2000 · Week 2

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

7·13

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapVikings
  • -0.033EPA / play+0.102
  • 38.4%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback+0.184
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.026
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.6%
  • 34.3%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.52Points / drive2.14
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.111EPA / play allowed+0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4MIA @ MIN10–15MIN
2022 · W6MIN @ MIA24–16MIN
2018 · W15MIA @ MIN17–41MIN
2014 · W16MIN @ MIA35–37MIA
2010 · W2MIA @ MIN14–10MIA
2006 · W11MIN @ MIA20–24MIA
2002 · W16MIA @ MIN17–20MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–MIN
MINQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:48624Punt0–0
MINQ1 8:39975Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 2:4639Punt0–3
MINQ1 0:25226Turnover0–3
MIAQ2 14:49825Punt0–3
MINQ2 10:49946Punt0–3
MIAQ2 5:2330Punt0–3
MINQ2 4:00848Turnover0–3
MIAQ2 0:231-1End of half0–3
MIAQ3 15:0033Turnover0–3
MINQ3 13:20924Turnover0–3
MIAQ3 9:49417Punt0–3
MINQ3 8:01539Punt0–3
MIAQ3 5:44855Punt0–3
MINQ3 2:061263Field goal0–6
MIAQ4 11:30418Punt0–6
MINQ4 9:2036Punt0–6
MIAQ4 7:413-7Punt0–6
MINQ4 6:53473Turnover0–6
MIAQ4 4:1840Punt0–6
MINQ4 3:51553Touchdown0–13
MIAQ4 1:56666Touchdown7–13
MINQ4 1:022-3End of half7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler12/3117511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith11272.50
Jay Fiedler4225.50
Bert Emanuel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Martin6121200
Oronde Gadsden24240
Lamar Smith11120
Jed Weaver11120
Bert Emanuel1350
Thurman Thomas1121
Leslie Shepherd0600

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper23/3735513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith18724.00
Daunte Culpepper8374.60
Randy Moss199.00
Jimmy Kleinsasser177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cris Carter9141680
Randy Moss611871
John Davis22420
Andrew Jordan34270
Chris Walsh11200
Robert Smith11110
Matt Hatchette0100
Jimmy Kleinsasser1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.47