Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.102
- 38.4%Success rate44.7%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 34.3%Third-down rate46.0%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.52Points / drive2.14
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.111EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. MIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 12/31 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 6 | 12 | 120 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/37 | 355 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 9 | 14 | 168 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 6 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| John Davis | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47