2018 · Week 15

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·41

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapVikings
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.075
  • 40.1%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.24CPOE+2.40
  • 30.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 65.0%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.57
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4MIA @ MIN10–15MIN
2022 · W6MIN @ MIA24–16MIN
2014 · W16MIN @ MIA35–37MIA
2010 · W2MIA @ MIN14–10MIA
2006 · W11MIN @ MIA20–24MIA
2002 · W16MIA @ MIN17–20MIN
2000 · W2MIA @ MIN7–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–MIN
MINQ1 15:00781Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 11:40415Punt0–7
MINQ1 9:20756Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 6:2131Punt0–14
MINQ1 5:10865Touchdown0–21
MIAQ1 1:32631Punt0–21
MINQ2 12:451143Opp touchdown7–21
MINQ2 7:4435Punt7–21
MIAQ2 6:171361Field goal10–21
MINQ2 0:1412End of half10–21
MIAQ3 15:00175Touchdown17–21
MINQ3 14:4936Punt17–21
MIAQ3 13:4054Punt17–21
MINQ3 9:5934Field goal17–24
MIAQ3 8:403-3Punt17–24
MINQ3 7:3478Punt17–24
MIAQ3 4:193-10Punt17–24
MINQ3 2:36857Field goal17–27
MIAQ4 13:013-9Punt17–27
MINQ4 11:58455Touchdown17–34
MIAQ4 9:544-9Turnover on downs17–34
MINQ4 7:58121Touchdown17–41
MIAQ4 7:49837Turnover on downs17–41
MINQ4 4:06417End of half17–41

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill11/2410800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kalen Ballage1212310.31
Frank Gore5142.80
Brandon Bolden11212.00
Kenyan Drake166.00
Ryan Tannehill111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola38300
Kenyan Drake33280
Mike Gesicki23230
Kenny Stills13170
Brice Butler13120
DeVante Parker0100
Nick O'Leary0100
Kalen Ballage11-20

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins14/2121521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook191367.22
Latavius Murray15684.51
Stefon Diggs199.00
Kirk Cousins571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Conklin23530
Stefon Diggs47491
Aldrick Robinson22441
Dalvin Cook12270
Kyle Rudolph33230
Adam Thielen22190
Laquon Treadwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.13