Closing spread
MIN -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.075
- 40.1%Success rate43.2%
- -0.100EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.24CPOE+2.40
- 30.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.57
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. MIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/24 | 108 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalen Ballage | 12 | 123 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14/21 | 215 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 19 | 136 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.13