2026 · Week 4

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Malik Willis

10·15

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kyler Murray

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

38.5

Model margin

+6.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapVikings
  • -0.049EPA / play-0.099
  • 39.8%Success rate36.7%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.195
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -6.93CPOE+0.39
  • 40.9%Third-down rate38.6%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.65
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6MIN @ MIA24–16MIN
2018 · W15MIA @ MIN17–41MIN
2014 · W16MIN @ MIA35–37MIA
2010 · W2MIA @ MIN14–10MIA
2006 · W11MIN @ MIA20–24MIA
2002 · W16MIA @ MIN17–20MIN
2000 · W2MIA @ MIN7–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–MIN
MINQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:50416Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:51619Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 7:54931Punt0–3
MINQ1 2:3976Punt0–3
MIAQ2 14:0636Punt0–3
MINQ2 12:151155Field goal0–6
MIAQ2 7:08310Turnover0–6
MINQ2 5:4532Punt0–6
MIAQ2 4:55413Punt0–6
MINQ2 2:43961Field goal0–9
MIAQ3 15:00660Field goal3–9
MINQ3 11:561147Field goal3–12
MIAQ3 6:3535Punt3–12
MINQ3 4:113-2Punt3–12
MIAQ3 1:52455Touchdown10–12
MINQ3 0:111460Field goal10–15
MIAQ4 6:4132Punt10–15
MINQ4 5:41889End of half10–15

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis9/178500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ollie Gordon II910011.11
Malik Willis2115.50
Jaylen Wright571.40
Malik Washington231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Washington55670
Will Kacmarek12150
Kevin Coleman Jr.1430
Jalen Tolbert0100
Ollie Gordon II2200
Chris Bell0300

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/3724700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones20944.70
Kyler Murray6162.70
Demond Claiborne3124.00
Myles Price122.00
Jordan Addison1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson13131190
Jordan Addison46520
Aaron Jones48340
Tai Felton11140
DeeJay Dallas11100
Jauan Jennings1180
Myles Price2260
Gavin Bartholomew1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.01