Closing spread
MIA -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.034EPA / play+0.019
- 42.2%Success rate48.7%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.063
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.18CPOE+2.14
- 39.7%Third-down rate41.5%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.59Points / drive1.97
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/26 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 35/47 | 396 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | -5 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 6 | 10 | 114 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 5 | 58 | 2 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 2 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 6 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Dion Sims | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerell Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18