2014 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

35·37

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -4.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.034EPA / play+0.019
  • 42.2%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.063
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.18CPOE+2.14
  • 39.7%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.97
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4MIA @ MIN10–15MIN
2022 · W6MIN @ MIA24–16MIN
2018 · W15MIA @ MIN17–41MIN
2010 · W2MIA @ MIN14–10MIA
2006 · W11MIN @ MIA20–24MIA
2002 · W16MIA @ MIN17–20MIN
2000 · W2MIA @ MIN7–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001237Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 9:591054Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 4:23737Punt7–0
MINQ1 1:42521Punt7–0
MIAQ2 13:39326Turnover7–0
MINQ2 12:23323Touchdown14–0
MIAQ2 11:341292Touchdown14–7
MINQ2 4:533-4Punt14–7
MIAQ2 3:25825Punt14–7
MINQ2 1:06886Field goal17–7
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half17–7
MINQ3 15:00419Punt17–7
MIAQ3 12:32980Touchdown17–14
MINQ3 8:29846Turnover17–14
MIAQ3 3:36950Touchdown17–21
MINQ4 14:57949Field goal20–21
MIAQ4 9:52880Touchdown20–28
MINQ4 6:39660Touchdown28–28
MIAQ4 4:4600Touchdown34–28
MINQ4 4:4015Touchdown35–28
MIAQ4 4:351370Touchdown35–35
MINQ4 1:113-2Safety35–37
MIAQ4 0:4100End of half35–37

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/2625921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata16583.62
Jarius Wright12727.00
Joe Banyard5234.60
Teddy Bridgewater5132.60
Cordarrelle Patterson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings33561
Rhett Ellison22470
Jarius Wright33381
Charles D. Johnson36380
Chase Ford12220
Matt Asiata34190
Cordarrelle Patterson11180
Adam Thielen11120
Joe Banyard2390

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill35/4739641

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller19924.81
Damien Williams3186.00
LaMichael James155.00
Ryan Tannehill6-5-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay6101140
Mike Wallace55582
Lamar Miller57580
Brandon Gibson25500
Damien Williams66501
Dion Sims33351
Jarvis Landry89310
Brian Hartline0100
Gerell Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.18