Closing spread
PHI -13
Total
44
Model margin
+5.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.055
- 37.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.117
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.1%
- -5.37CPOE-1.03
- 32.7%Third-down rate42.8%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.35Points / drive1.67
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. PHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 8/22 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 18 | 143 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 26/48 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6/13 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.93