2006 · Week 11

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

31·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -13

Total

44

Model margin

+5.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapEagles
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.055
  • 37.6%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.117
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.049
  • 9.1%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -5.37CPOE-1.03
  • 32.7%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.67
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. PHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PHI @ TEN24–20PHI
2022 · W13TEN @ PHI10–35PHI
2018 · W4PHI @ TEN23–26TEN
2014 · W12TEN @ PHI24–43PHI
2010 · W7PHI @ TEN19–37TEN
2002 · W1PHI @ TEN24–27TEN
2000 · W14TEN @ PHI15–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PHI
TENQ1 15:00671Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 11:25515Punt7–0
TENQ1 9:162-3Turnover7–0
PHIQ1 8:43612Turnover7–0
TENQ1 6:17612Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:17447Field goal7–3
TENQ1 2:3534Punt7–3
PHIQ1 0:43619Punt7–3
TENQ2 14:0538Punt7–3
PHIQ2 13:0231Punt7–3
TENQ2 11:06930Turnover on downs7–3
PHIQ2 7:47848Field goal7–6
TENQ2 4:031550Field goal10–6
PHIQ3 15:00722Punt16–6
TENQ3 12:31170Touchdown17–6
PHIQ3 12:20615Opp touchdown24–6
PHIQ3 8:5533Punt24–6
TENQ3 7:5539Punt24–6
PHIQ3 5:351233Turnover on downs24–6
TENQ3 1:0839Punt24–6
PHIQ4 14:531180Touchdown24–13
TENQ4 9:11429Punt24–13
PHIQ4 6:211047Turnover on downs24–13
TENQ4 3:4435Punt24–13
PHIQ4 3:151248Opp touchdown31–13
PHIQ4 0:2000Turnover31–13
TENQ4 0:0800Turnover31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young8/2210110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry181437.91
Vince Young6498.20
LenDale White8172.10

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia26/4818910
Donovan McNabb6/137801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook221024.60
Correll Buckhalter3165.30
Reno Mahe144.00
Jeff Garcia310.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.93