Closing spread
TEN -2
Total
37
Model margin
+3.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.043
- 43.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.095
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.9%
- 39.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.81Points / drive1.58
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/36 | 212 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 5 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 8 | 32 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 24/34 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 4 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21