2002 · Week 1

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

24·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -2

Total

37

Model margin

+3.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapTitans
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.043
  • 43.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.095
  • 8.8%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.58
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PHI @ TEN24–20PHI
2022 · W13TEN @ PHI10–35PHI
2018 · W4PHI @ TEN23–26TEN
2014 · W12TEN @ PHI24–43PHI
2010 · W7PHI @ TEN19–37TEN
2006 · W11TEN @ PHI31–13TEN
2000 · W14TEN @ PHI15–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TEN
PHIQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:29975Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 7:1037Punt0–7
PHIQ1 6:13316Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 5:2000Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 5:19661Touchdown14–7
TENQ1 2:36981Field goal14–10
PHIQ2 11:001180Touchdown21–10
TENQ2 5:0546Punt21–10
PHIQ2 2:2330Punt21–10
TENQ2 1:5810Turnover21–10
PHIQ2 1:4843Field goal24–10
TENQ2 0:4825End of half24–10
TENQ3 15:00736Field goal24–13
PHIQ3 11:0610Turnover24–13
TENQ3 10:4512Turnover24–13
PHIQ3 10:391546Punt24–13
TENQ3 1:48412Turnover24–13
PHIQ3 0:1510Turnover24–13
TENQ3 0:10727Touchdown24–19
PHIQ4 12:49930Punt24–19
TENQ4 8:501482Touchdown24–27
PHIQ4 3:0932Punt24–27
TENQ4 1:4934Punt24–27
PHIQ4 1:2320Turnover24–27
TENQ4 1:1200End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb18/3621232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook8425.30
Duce Staley7182.60
Donovan McNabb3155.00
Dorsey Levens393.00
Cecil Martin1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman34540
Duce Staley57471
Todd Pinkston37370
James Thrash28321
Chad Lewis37281
Dorsey Levens22140
Freddie Mitchell0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair24/3426921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George18422.31
Steve McNair5244.80
Kevin Dyson1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason7101090
Frank Wycheck35470
Eddie George44381
Erron Kinney11250
Drew Bennett24130
Kevin Dyson24100
John Simon1160
Greg Comella1220
Justin McCareins1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.21