2010 · Week 7

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Kevin Kolb

19·37

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

41

Model margin

+4.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapTitans
  • +0.078EPA / play-0.017
  • 44.2%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.153
  • 11.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +4.09CPOE-0.87
  • 39.7%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.83
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PHI @ TEN24–20PHI
2022 · W13TEN @ PHI10–35PHI
2018 · W4PHI @ TEN23–26TEN
2014 · W12TEN @ PHI24–43PHI
2006 · W11TEN @ PHI31–13TEN
2002 · W1PHI @ TEN24–27TEN
2000 · W14TEN @ PHI15–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TEN
TENQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:31828Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:21416Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 7:2835Punt0–0
TENQ1 7:0459Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:351455Field goal3–0
TENQ2 12:091034Turnover3–0
PHIQ2 8:1210Turnover3–0
TENQ2 7:57630Touchdown3–7
PHIQ2 6:291080Touchdown10–7
TENQ2 1:564-1Punt10–7
PHIQ2 1:10429Field goal13–7
TENQ2 0:0400End of half13–7
PHIQ3 15:00842Field goal16–7
TENQ3 11:1433Turnover16–7
PHIQ3 10:21838Turnover16–7
TENQ3 5:51949Field goal16–10
PHIQ3 1:18635Field goal19–10
TENQ4 13:26180Touchdown19–17
PHIQ4 13:1333Punt19–17
TENQ4 12:06641Field goal19–20
PHIQ4 9:2645Punt19–20
TENQ4 7:30653Touchdown19–27
PHIQ4 5:0336Punt19–27
TENQ4 4:063-3Punt19–27
TENQ4 3:37713Field goal19–30
PHIQ4 0:2220Opp touchdown19–37

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb26/4823112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16483.00
Chad Hall4194.80
Kevin Kolb3186.00
Jeremy Maclin11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant68600
LeSean McCoy67540
Riley Cooper36511
Jeremy Maclin514420
Brent Celek2580
Garrett Mills1150
Chad Hall1250

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins17/3127632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson24662.80
Javon Ringer294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt7102253
Damian Williams34250
Nate Washington1470
Bo Scaife3570
Chris Johnson2470
Lavelle Hawkins1150
Craig Stevens0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.45
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.48