Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play-0.017
- 44.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.153
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.09CPOE-0.87
- 39.7%Third-down rate34.8%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.97Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 26/48 | 231 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 14 | 42 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Garrett Mills | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/31 | 276 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 24 | 66 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 7 | 10 | 225 | 3 |
| Damian Williams | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.45
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.48