2026 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

24·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 92°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapTitans
  • -0.096EPA / play-0.083
  • 37.7%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.067
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.110
  • 4.6%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -2.40CPOE-0.46
  • 36.2%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 73.9%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.55
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13TEN @ PHI10–35PHI
2018 · W4PHI @ TEN23–26TEN
2014 · W12TEN @ PHI24–43PHI
2010 · W7PHI @ TEN19–37TEN
2006 · W11TEN @ PHI31–13TEN
2002 · W1PHI @ TEN24–27TEN
2000 · W14TEN @ PHI15–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TEN
TENQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:351659Turnover0–0
TENQ1 5:56410Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 4:221165Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 12:49631Punt7–7
PHIQ2 9:271586Touchdown14–7
TENQ2 1:49756Field goal14–10
PHIQ3 15:0052Punt14–10
TENQ3 11:4536Punt14–10
PHIQ3 10:08616Field goal17–10
TENQ3 8:081269Touchdown17–17
PHIQ3 0:5732Punt17–17
TENQ4 15:00521Punt17–17
PHIQ4 12:361146Turnover17–17
TENQ4 6:001184Field goal17–20
PHIQ4 1:56965Touchdown24–20
TENQ4 0:09215End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts26/3726422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby13332.51
Will Shipley7243.40
Jalen Hurts5163.20
Marquise Brown2126.00
Saquon Barkley492.30
Makai Lemon1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith10131171
Dontayvion Wicks56740
Darius Cooper23261
Makai Lemon11140
Saquon Barkley12110
Johnny Mundt2380
Tank Bigsby2250
Will Shipley2250
Dallas Goedert1240

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward13/2018300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard14644.60
Tyjae Spears7415.90
Nicholas Singleton4102.50
Cam Ward471.82

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elic Ayomanor23690
Calvin Ridley22350
Tyjae Spears22290
Carnell Tate35270
Gunnar Helm22130
Wan'Dale Robinson1190
Tony Pollard1110
Daniel Bellinger0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

3.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.10