Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
-4.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play-0.141
- 34.0%Success rate44.0%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.152
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.096
- 9.4%Explosive rate4.0%
- +0.87CPOE+0.39
- 42.9%Third-down rate33.3%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive0.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.18