Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.100
- 41.2%Success rate47.9%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.104EPA / rush+0.072
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.3%
- -0.94CPOE+2.05
- 37.1%Third-down rate46.2%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.46Points / drive2.43
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. PHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 14/22 | 141 | 1 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 2/4 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 29/39 | 380 | 3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 10 | 119 | 2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 8 | 102 | 1 |
| Jack Stoll | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.39