2022 · Week 13

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

10·35

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapEagles
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.100
  • 41.2%Success rate47.9%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.104EPA / rush+0.072
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -0.94CPOE+2.05
  • 37.1%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.43
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. PHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PHI @ TEN24–20PHI
2018 · W4PHI @ TEN23–26TEN
2014 · W12TEN @ PHI24–43PHI
2010 · W7PHI @ TEN19–37TEN
2006 · W11TEN @ PHI31–13TEN
2002 · W1PHI @ TEN24–27TEN
2000 · W14TEN @ PHI15–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00785Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 12:0331Punt0–7
PHIQ1 9:5235Punt0–7
TENQ1 8:151166Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 2:479100Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 13:5533Punt7–14
PHIQ2 12:1382Punt7–14
TENQ2 8:49974Field goal10–14
PHIQ2 3:28851Touchdown10–21
TENQ2 0:5136Punt10–21
PHIQ2 0:26557End of half10–21
TENQ3 15:003-7Punt10–21
PHIQ3 13:29450Touchdown10–28
TENQ3 12:0749Punt10–28
PHIQ3 9:363-2Punt10–28
TENQ3 8:3740Punt10–28
PHIQ3 6:181780Touchdown10–35
TENQ4 11:27520Punt10–35
PHIQ4 9:4030Punt10–35
TENQ4 7:55723Turnover on downs10–35
PHIQ4 5:25625Punt10–35
TENQ4 1:42314End of half10–35

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill14/2214110
Malik Willis2/41600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Tannehill33411.30
Derrick Henry11302.70
Julius Chestnut5132.60
Malik Willis188.00
Dontrell Hilliard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo45680
Treylon Burks11251
Austin Hooper35220
Dontrell Hilliard22140
Derrick Henry2380
Robert Woods1560
C.J. Board1160
Geoff Swaim1140
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1240

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts29/3938030
Gardner Minshew1/21100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders10242.41
Boston Scott6162.70
Kenny Gainwell3155.00
Jalen Hurts5122.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown8101192
DeVonta Smith581021
Jack Stoll33410
Kenny Gainwell34380
Quez Watkins56370
Grant Calcaterra11190
Zach Pascal23160
Miles Sanders22140
Boston Scott1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.39