2018 · Week 4

Final / OT

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

23·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapTitans
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.029
  • 46.2%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +5.11CPOE+1.50
  • 40.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.83
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PHI @ TEN24–20PHI
2022 · W13TEN @ PHI10–35PHI
2014 · W12TEN @ PHI24–43PHI
2010 · W7PHI @ TEN19–37TEN
2006 · W11TEN @ PHI31–13TEN
2002 · W1PHI @ TEN24–27TEN
2000 · W14TEN @ PHI15–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TEN
TENQ1 15:00751Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 11:22628Punt0–3
TENQ1 9:09422Punt0–3
PHIQ1 7:1746Punt0–3
TENQ1 4:53845Punt0–3
PHIQ2 14:50747Punt0–3
TENQ2 11:53537Punt0–3
PHIQ2 8:56897Touchdown7–3
TENQ2 4:0433Punt7–3
PHIQ2 2:22839Punt7–3
TENQ2 0:4110Turnover7–3
PHIQ2 0:2638Field goal10–3
PHIQ3 15:001493Touchdown17–3
TENQ3 7:36967Touchdown17–10
PHIQ3 2:51710Turnover17–10
TENQ4 14:03720Field goal17–13
PHIQ4 9:1834Punt17–13
TENQ4 7:55575Touchdown17–20
PHIQ4 5:01517Punt17–20
TENQ4 2:5037Punt17–20
PHIQ4 1:41527Field goal20–20
TENQ4 0:1600End of half20–20
PHIOT856Field goal23–20
TENOT1871Touchdown23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz33/5034820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi15704.70
Wendell Smallwood5397.80
Carson Wentz284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz10141120
Alshon Jeffery891051
Jordan Matthews13561
Nelson Agholor512220
Wendell Smallwood35150
Kamar Aiken11140
Dallas Goedert22130
Jay Ajayi34110

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota30/4334421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota10464.61
Derrick Henry8243.00
Dion Lewis400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis9151611
Taywan Taylor79770
Dion Lewis99660
Tajae Sharpe23271
Derrick Henry2270
Darius Jennings1260
Jonnu Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.33