Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.029
- 46.2%Success rate42.6%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- +5.11CPOE+1.50
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.01Points / drive1.83
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 33/50 | 348 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10 | 14 | 112 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 8 | 9 | 105 | 1 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 12 | 22 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 30/43 | 344 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 9 | 15 | 161 | 1 |
| Taywan Taylor | 7 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33